Predictions for 2007

Since a new year beckons, and this is a blog, it follows that predictions for the new year must follow. Hey, rules are rules. And so, with no further adieu, here are my predictions for 2007:

Easy Calls:

• Microsoft Vista comes, new machines get it, nobody on XP upgrades. Microsoft will be content to turn over their installed base with new machines sold and old machines obsoleted. Otherwise, upgrades will be slower than currently forecast.

• Apple delivers Leopard, new machines get it, but upgrades are slower than currently forecast. Tiger is sufficiently good, and external packages (e.g VirtueDesktops) simulate a lot of the new functionality. Apple has a big decision to make, between adding functionality for the IPod/digital home, and functionality for business and enterprise solutions.

• Linux will continue plodding progress in '07, and boom in '08. Linux has a lot to recommend it - including good security, scalability, and cost. Its openness makes it impervious to horrible, enterprise-inappropriate additions, and has a huge leg up on 64-bit solutions. If Ubuntu can continue advancement of a plausible desktop system, Linux will start taking Mac users in '07 and MS users in '08.

• Dynamic languages will keep making inroads on "traditional" (.Net and J2EE) development. Compared to compiled C++, Ruby is one slow language in execution, but there are so many available processing cycles that development savings dominate. It won't run Google or the would-be Googles, but it's fast enough for everybody else. The second wave of RoR apps will appear.

• Ajax is here to stay, and full page refreshes will disappear in 2007. Good packages (such as [Prototype](http://www.prototype.com)), and the ease of integration in new environments (Ruby on Rails) make ajaxification easy for new applications. Existing apps will ajaxify or be replaced by ajax'd apps.

• Google backlash begins. Past a certain size, it gets really hard to not "be evil." Google has passed that size, and the leading edge isn't willing to give them a pass anymore. Look for one new search engine to break on top of the pack.

Wild Swags:

• Oracle buys Sun. Alexander the Great wept, because he had no more worlds to conquer. Larry Ellison does not weep, and Sun Microsystems is the most logical, Oracle-cultural-fit left. The current permissive antitrust environment won't last forever, so Oracle goes Exxon-Mobil(e) in '07.

• Indian IT giants start buying second- and third-tier US software providers. Outsourced development from the US to India is now commonplace; the next logical step is Indian vertical integration into the American market. Wilder swag: Wipro buys Lotus assets from IBM.

• Google buys Ebay. See 7) above. 'Froogle' has gone nowhere, Ebay got spat out of China. Google has innovative IT at scale, Ebay needs innovative IT at scale. Match made in heaven, and these kinds of deals won't find a favorable approval environment forever.

Final Swag:

• Innovators rule. Vista is great looking, but is it a compelling upgrade if DRM restrictions give new users less control than they have now? Apple is also wading into DRM waters that make sense for IPods but not for enterprise-anything. Oracle has its hands full with Fusion, and if you like the JD Edwards, Peoplesoft or Siebel software you're running you might not want to Fuse in '07. As Tony Curtis once said: "In confusion there is profit." '07 looks like a great year for disruptive technologies and solutions.